I got an email today from ACS and I need help from someone good at statistics. Or just opinions to help me do better in deciding than a coin toss.
I was given two options regarding the 2021 marathon...
Option 1: Be put in NYC Marathons deferment selection which guarantees me one of the next three years (2021, 2022, 2023) but not which of the three years (it'll be random), so a 33.33% chance of getting to run 2021.
Option 2: Waiting to see how many bibs ACS gets for 2021 with a chance I might NOT get one. Also, the fundraising goal will go up.
Now depending on how many people go with option 1, I will hopefully be higher on the list when they get the number of bibs towards option 2 but there are a lot of unknowns such as how many bibs they will get, will I be high enough on the list, and what the new fundraising goal will be.
Also, they specifically mentioned in the email that the status of 2021 is still unknown since it looks like we might not have a vaccination by then (November 2021) and large gatherings could still be a no no.
Either option I choose, all money raised so far will go towards the goal, whether it remain the current goal or goes up.
